OntoSearch

The growth of the web since 2000 has been massive and in the ‘new’ economies – China, Brazil, Russia, India, Eastern Europe that is likely to continue apace. It’s not until penetration reaches that of the phone that the market will mature. That’s lots of growth.

Given this likely growth what will the web look like in 2020?

Well, there are two sides to that coin – the way the technology works and then the ways we use it and, of course, forecast vision is much less likely to be accurate than optical.

Technology

According to technology expert and entrepreneur Nova Spivack, the development of the web moves in 10 year cycles.

In the initial decade, most of the development focused on the back end. In the second decade, focus shifted to the front end and the era social media, mash-ups and experiments to make the web a lot more interactive. The next cycle will shift focus to the back end again. Then by 2020 focus will return to the front end and we’ll see thousands of new methods to use the web.

Some of the predictions for the next 10 years are the:

- ‘ever present’ web will merge with all other forms of entertainment and every thing will be delivered via the web. Every thing (phones, fridges, the lot) will connect to the net and you will have a constant connection to the web at work, at residence, driving, in the pub or restaurant, in reality wherever you are.

- semantic web and artificial intelligence where all info is categorized and stored in such a way that a computer can realize it as well as a human. The web will capable of analyzing data and extrapolating new ideas for you. In reality people already feel that, as 1 of our readers, Tony Cox, wrote after one of our recent articles: “The Web is evolving like a primitive brain building neural connections to integrate the myriad of input signals for evaluation, selective storage and sending of response signals. The conscious mind is only aware of that which demands attention, with most work dealt with automatically and subconsciously.”

- 3 dimensional web – 1 single virtual world with buildings, shops and other areas to explore and men and women to interact with in virtual reality and real on the internet personalities. Nevertheless, standards for programming and graphical design would be significantly far more complex and pricey.

- above or some combination thereof.

Web usage

So what will the backroom developments mean for what we do on the web? Well, Seth Godin has characterised these next developments as:

- ubiquity – due to the fact it is about activity, not just data, and most human activity takes location offline

- identity – due to the fact the deliverable is based on who you are and what you do and what you want

- connection – because ‘you’re nothing without the rest of us’.

We are already seeing some of these changes with the growth of social media and the launch just recently of Google Sidewiki – a new feature of the Google Toolbar that lets you leave comments about any site. When some else running Sidewiki views that web page, they’ll see your comments.

But in the future Godin sees significantly much more potent applications. He gives examples of how this will work too, such as:

- I’m typing an email to an individual, and we’re brainstorming about performing a organization development deal with Apple. A little window pops up and lets me know that David over in our Tucscon office is already having a similar conversation with Apple and perhaps we must coordinate.

- I’m late for a dinner. My GPS phone knows this (since it has my calendar, my location, and the visitors status). So, it tells me, and then it alerts the men and women who are waiting for me.

Some of this is not so far away. Google Wave has just launched and has a lot of features, such as:

- Real-time: In most instances, you can see what somebody else is typing, character-by-character.

- Extensions: Just like Facebook developers can build their own applications within waves. Google Wave code will be open source, to promote innovation and adoption amongst developers

- Wiki functionality: Anything written within a Google Wave can be edited by any person else

- Playback: You can playback any component of the wave to see what was said.

- Drag-and-drop sharing: Drag your file and drop it into a Google Wave and everybody will have access.

The Social Issues Research Centre says that the web in 2020 will:

”……….meet human requirements a lot more fully than it does at present, with many resulting social and political implications. It will have come to offer a renewed forum for social cohesion and democracy as well as continuing as a platform for information, entertainment, communication, shopping, etc. ……… If a Web application, however complex and sophisticated, does not fulfil a timeless human need then it will not succeed. Even though technology changes, folks in general do not………. We reinvent tribal groups in which we locate a true sense of belonging, regardless of whether they be the familiar youth subcultures………. or the far more staid and respectable………. ‘grown-up’ groups with which we are so familiar………. As basic mechanisms for bonding and social cohesion are eroded in the faceless anonymity of modern towns and cities, we re-produce new indicates for satisfying our timeless requirements. In this sense, nothing changes much apart from superficial style. The Web increasingly serves such requirements, allowing us to establish and maintain the exact same social bonds……….”

Hence Marshall McLuhan’s Global Village becomes genuinely real and as Jeremiah Owyang, says: “people connect to every other – rather than institutions………. Customers will rely on their peers as they make online decisions, whether or not brands pick to participate……… The community will take charge and that’s going to take place whether or not or not marketers or brands participate………. Social networking will only continue to facilitate the power shift toward the consumer.”

The crucial thing about all of this is that it entirely changes the dynamic. For several years now the dynamic has been biased towards firms. As examples, branding and cost promises have been two of the techniques that firms have been able to maintain profitability whilst ‘reassuring’ customers, i.e.

The purpose of any brand is to undermine the homogeneity of products so that fairly significantly indistinguishable items – whether cola or lager or denim or some thing else – have a substantially diverse value due to the fact they are marked with the label ‘Coca’ or ‘Pepsi’ or ‘Virgin’ or ‘Carling’ or ‘Heineken’ or ‘Budweiser’ or ‘Gap’ or ‘Levi’ or ‘Top Shop’. The advertising business is dedicated to establishing consumer preference for one brand or one more. This supplies organizations with increased profitability.

With the ‘range’ of goods presently readily available how could we possibly know about all of them or what they are worth? Our knowledge of the marketplace and its goods is far from ideal, hence advertising campaigns offering that ‘If you discover it cheaper elsewhere, we’ll refund twice the difference’.

Clearly, if you had best data you would know it was cheaper somewhere else to begin with and, if you wished to ‘maximise your utility’ buy it there. This also offers businesses with increased profitability.

In the social web marketplace where much far more best understanding may exist (like tiny towns in 1750) then will brands that are actually ‘just commodity products’ be able to exploit these situations?

Maybe, but it will take a significant change in attitude from top down to bottom up thinking, thinking which Really puts the consumer first ( ‘ask not what your community can do for you – ask what you can do for your community’ ) and not the CEO’s pay package.